Energy

Packing Potential Power: Better Batteries Blasting Baselines

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Graph showing increasing quality of batteries and decreasing costs of batteries.
Source: Ziegler and Trancik (2021) before 2018 (end of data), BNEF Long-Term Electric Vehicle Outlook (2023) since 2018, BNEF Lithium-Ion Battery Price Survey (2023) for 2015-2023, RMI analysis.

The baseline power that a battery can deal out is increasing at a faster rate than anticipated. This s-curve of growth reflects the burgeoning demand of batteries as we increasingly electricity our systems and shift away from fossil fuels (finally!), and global industry is feeding that demand. As there is more demand for batteries we see an increase in supply and research into improving batteries, which lead to better batteries. This feedback loop of efficiency is driving growth in batteries to double every three years! Even government subsidies for the fossil fuel sector won’t keep the oil companies burning our planet once these bigger market factors really are felt on the global economy. Once you go electric, you never go back.

If we look forward to the next seven years, we see the drivers of change strengthening. Notably, we see costs continuing to fall, policy support continuing to rise, and competition between economic blocs continuing to drive a race to the top. And while there are barriers to battery adoption on the horizon, humanity’s wit, will, and capital are scaling proportionally faster. Thus, we do not see a scenario of slow adoption as credible; instead, we model two futures: fast or faster. Reality is likely to lie somewhere between the two.

RMI forecasts that in 2030, top-tier density will be between 600 and 800 Wh/kg, costs will fall to $32–$54 per kWh, and battery sales will rise to between 5.5–8 TWh per year. To get a sense of this speed of change, the lower-bound (or the “fast” scenario) is running in line with BNEF’s Net Zero scenario. The faster S-curve scenario exceeds it.

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This 28-ton Kite Provides 1.2MW of Power

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One of bizarre criticisms of solar power is that it only works when the sun hits them which means some areas are hesitant to install large solar arrays (honestly, this criticism is so strange since energy use is highest during daytime). Lunar energy, on the other hand, works all day and is very easy to predict which is why using the moon to provide power is ganging interest. This lunar power is captured through tidal flows, has the moon moves water on Earth we can capture that energy by creating machines that spin turbines using the passing water. That’s exactly what Minesto has done with their underwater kite. Traditional tidal power sources are stationary whereas the Minesto Dragon 12 is only tethered to the sea floor so it can ride underwater currents to produce more power than a stationary tidal generator.

The Dragon 12, like other tidal devices, will be more effective in some places than others – and Denmark’s Faroe Islands, an archipelago in the chilly North Atlantic between Scotland and Iceland, offer ideal conditions. Home to about 55,000 people and more than a million puffins, the Faroe Islands funnel tidal currents through a number of slim channels. This accelerates the water significantly, and thus increases the energy that devices like the Dragon 12 can harvest.
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“This is a big day for Minesto,” said Dr Martin Edlund, CEO of Minesto, in a press release. “We have reached the most significant milestone in the history of the company by producing electricity to the grid with our mega-watt scale powerplant. We are both proud and happy and more than ever look forward to the journey ahead … The competitiveness of the Dragon 12 is straight to the point; it’s powerful, cost-effective and feeds predictable electricity to the grid.”

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Let’s End Gas Subsidies

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For some strange reason countries like Canada keep giving tax money to ultra wealthy oil and gas companies even though they keep killing all life on the planet. Let’s stop this. The team at Solar Share hosted a good information session on how we can reduce government money going to oil and gas, and of course, channeling that money to renewables. It’s worth a watch.

On February 12, over 30 participants joined us for our webinar about ending gas subsidies in Ontario, featuring Kent Elson (Elson Advocacy) and Jessica Hamilton (former political candidate and staffer).

We discussed the Ford government’s plan to overrule the Ontario Energy Board’s decision on gas subsidies, what “natural” methane gas is, and how to effectively engage with our elected representatives in Ontario.

There were some excellent questions and comments, and you can watch the recording here!

Wind Turbines & Birds, Ok; Gas & Birds, Not Ok

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industry

People opposed to a clean economy argue that birds get killed by wind turbines so therefore we shouldn’t build wind farms. Of course, those same people would argue that we should stick to planet-killing fossil fuels instead; somehow, in their minds using fossil fuels is better than renewables when it comes to protecting nature. To hopefully put this ridiculous debate to bed The Economist has stepped in. The magazine that is trapped in the last century agrees that when it comes to power generation and protecting nature that renewable energy is best.

But Dr Katovich did not confine his analysis to wind power alone. He also examined oil-and-gas extraction. Like wind power, this has boomed in America over the past couple of decades, with the rise of shale gas produced by hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, of rocks. Production rose from 37m cubic metres in 2007 to 740m cubic metres in 2020.

Comparing bird populations to the locations of new gas wells revealed an average 15% drop in bird numbers when new wells were drilled, probably due to a combination of noise, air pollution and the disturbance of rivers and ponds that many birds rely upon. When drilling happened in places designated by the National Audubon Society as “important bird areas”, bird numbers instead dropped by 25%. Such places are typically migration hubs, feeding grounds or breeding locations.

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Hawaiian Battery Better Than Coal

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Hawaii just became an even better place to live thanks to cleaner air. The state recently decommissioned their coal power plant and replaced it with a much nicer looking battery complex. The battery system had to be designed with potential disasters in mind due to the risks of earthquakes, volcanoes, and more. Despite the local challenges the battery system is working effectively and if Hawaii can replace coal with batteries than all the other states can do it too.

Hawaiian Electric’s modeling suggests it can reduce curtailment of renewables by an estimated 69% for the first five years thanks to Kapolei Energy Storage, allowing surplus clean electricity that would otherwise go to waste to get onto the grid.

The utility also requested ?“black-start capability.” If a disaster, like a cyclone or earthquake, knocks out the grid completely, Hawaiian Electric needs a power source to restart it. The Kapolei batteries are programmed to hold some energy in reserve for that purpose. Plus Power located the project near a substation connected to three other power plants so the battery ?“can be AAA to jump-start those other plants,” Keefe said.

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